2025 AFL Round 1

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Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL Tips - Giants to succeed in demi-god tug of war

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 14 Mar 2025

Ryan Tucker 14 Mar 2025

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Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 1 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEDT)
GWS Giants are expected to capitalize on recent form and win against Melbourne Demons.
Despite key injuries, GWS looks strong after a recent 52-point win over Collingwood.
Predictions favor GWS for a 1-39 margin victory, game total under, and Josh Kelly with 25+ touches.

Top picks from all Sunday games in the AFL Round 1

Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction

Another close battle is expected on Sunday with the Giants tipped to move to 2-0 to start the year.

Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2024 Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
GWS Giants Team News
GWS Giants Team List
Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Giants have matched up well recently against the Dees and own the recent head to head record. They are also full of momentum following the 52 pt win over Collingwood in Opening Round last weekend.

Despite missing Tom Green and Jesse Hogan the Giants had no trouble controlling the game and putting points on the board which fills me with trust that they will be able to go a long way in repeating the effort this weekend against Melbourne.

The Demons have almost a full deck of cards to play with this weekend and any AFL fan will be happy to see the likes of Petracca, Oliver and Gawn running around together again. My prediction is that it will be a very even game with matchups playing an important role in which of the superstars can produce for their team.

Given the fact GWS already have a game under their belt I have to side with them in what is expected to be a game that will go down to the wire. Take GWS on the 1-39 margin, Game total Under in a tug-of-war and Kelly to get 25+ touches.

GWS have won their first two games of the season in 4 of the last 6 years.
6 of the last 7 games have all finished with a 1-39 winning margin.
In 3 of the 4 recent GWS victories the Game Total has gone Under.
Josh Kelly had 36 disposals last weekend and averaged 24.3 per game in 2024.

Head to Head

The Head to Head record stands at 4-3 to the Giants since the beginning of the 2019 season with GWS taking the last two in a row and 3 of the last 4 matchups.

4 of the last 7 games have gone Over the Game Total including last season’s sole matchup at the MCG. Only once has the winning margin exceeded 40+ points with the last two games finishing with a 2 pt margin in the Giants favour.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	2-3	3-2

It has been clear for a few seasons that the Demons lack depth. When their players are healthy they have one of the most formidable rosters in the league, but when the injury bug strikes it’s effectively game over.

That is what happened last season as a 6-2 start quickly morphed into a 11-12 season record with players dropping like flies midway through the year. They will again start with most of the top 22 on deck and the expectation is that they can once again get off to a good start.

A total of 9 games were decided by 40+ margins last season for Melbourne which puts them at equal 6th spot in the league for that metric, the even spread (5-4) points to the swing in momentum they encountered through the year.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
12-11	10-13	6-8	5-4

Melbourne Demons Team News

The Dees will have most of their stars on deck for Round 1, Kysaiah Pickett still has a few weeks to go on his suspension and will be back in Round 4. Number 6 draft pick Harvey Langford will make his debut off the pine.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: H.Petty, S.May, C.Salem

HB: B.Howes, J.Lever, J.Bowey

C: E.Langdon, C.Petracca, C.Windsor

HF: J.Viney, M.Jefferson, T.Sparrow

F: B.Fritsch, J.van Rooyen, K.Chandler

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, T.Rivers

I/C: H.Langford, X.Lindsay, H.Sharp, A.Johnson, J.Henderson,

EMG: J.Billings, T.McDonald, T.Campbell

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-0	1-0	0-1

The Giants blew out the cobwebs in style in Opening Round, taking care of Collingwood in dominant fashion 104-52.

GWS actually lost the Inside 50 battle 55-54 but the Pies were inaccurate in front of goal leading to the massive difference in scoring. The Giants controlled the ball well during the game and never looked troubled forcing 64 turnovers from their opponents and controlling the possession 47%-38%.

They were even on the stoppage clearances but were undermanned at the centre bounce leading to an imbalance number of clearances there. GWS’s disposal efficiency was at 76.6% which is a tick higher than their average from 2024.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-0	0-10	0-0	1-0

GWS Giants Team News

Tom Green is a shock inclusion in the team overcoming a calf complaint that kept him out of Opening Round. Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer will need another week or two before lacing up. Kieran Briggs will miss some time with concussion following the big hit last weekend but has been said to be progressing well.

GWS Giants Team List

B: C.Idun, S.Taylor, H.Himmelberg

HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash

C: J.Kelly, T.Green, S.Coniglio

HF: X.O’Halloran, T.Greene - C, B.Daniels

F: D.Jones, A.Cadman, M.Gruzewski

FOLL: L.Keeffe, T.Bedford, F.Callaghan

I/C: C.Brown, C.Ward, C.Stone, J.Leake, J.Wehr

EMG: C.Angove, O.Hannaford, L.Aleer

Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 1?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney

Take GWS on the 1-39 margin, Game total Under in a tug-of-war and Kelly to get 25+ touches.

GWS 1-39

Winning Margin

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