2025 AFL Round 1

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Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL Tips - Bulldogs to take a bite out of new look Kangas

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 13 Mar 2025

Ryan Tucker 13 Mar 2025

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Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 1 AFL game
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEDT)
Western Bulldogs favored to win against North Melbourne Kangaroos in AFL 2025 Round 1.
Bulldogs on a 7-game winning streak, with recent wins by over 40 points.
North Melbourne struggles in defense; expect Bulldogs to cover the line.

Ryan gives his top picks for Saturday night AFL

Tip: Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne	Odds	Bookie
Bulldogs -20.5 Line	$1.90
North under 77.5 Team Total	$1.90
S Darcy 3+ Goals	$2.35

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Bulldogs will win the West vs North battle on Saturday night, the question will be just by how much.

Our predictive modelling has the difference at between 63-69 points based on statistics from the past 3 years of play. With the player turnover at the Kangaroos and with the injury list the Bulldogs are nursing I believe it will be much closer.

With that said I will still need to see the defensive structures of North Melbourne before I am willing to part with any hard earned backing them in. The best pick is to take the Bulldogs to cover as favourites.

North Melbourne’s efficiency Inside 50 was terrible in the two games they played against the Bulldogs last season - at both ends of the field. The Doggies will see this game as a good warm up to stretch their legs before meeting Collingwood next weekend.

Take the Western Bulldogs to cover the line with North Melbourne’s defence not up to task. The scoring will be hard to come by for the Kangas against the team that allowed the fewest opposition points in 2024, take their team total Under.

Western Bulldogs have won 7 in a row against North Melbourne.
3 of the last 4 wins have been by 40+ points.
The Bulldogs allowed the fewest points per game to their opposition in 2024.
Sam Darcy kicked 7 goals in the most recent win over North Melbourne.

Head to Head

The Bulldogs have won 7 in a row against the Kangaroos with North Melbourne’s most recent win coming in May of 2019 at Marvel Stadium. The closest they have been to winning in that period was a 17 point deficit in the first matchup of these teams last season.

The win margin has been 40+ in 4 of the 7 wins since 2019. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 8 games but the ATS record is 4-4.

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	4-1

The Bulldogs finished 6th last season with 14 wins and 9 losses but were bounced in the first round of the finals by the Hawks 99-62 ending their season.

They had the 4th oldest average age and finished the season just .2 points behind eventual runners up Sydney in General Rating. The team led the league in Inside 50’s tallying up 56.6 per game but were down in 10th spot for Goals per Inside 50 averaging a major on just 23.6% of their entries per game.

Western Bulldogs allowed the fewest points to their opposition in 2024 at 75.47 pts per game but allowed the 3rd highest number of Rebound 50’s.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-11	16-8	6-7	8-3

Western Bulldogs Team News

The Bulldogs have one of the longest injury lists to start the season that we have seen in a while. Marcus Bontempelli is still 4-6 weeks away with a host of other players including Adam Treloar, Cody Weightman, Jason Johannisen and Liam Jones also on the sidelines for a chunk of time.

Bailey Dale, Ed Richards, Rhylee West and Laith Vandermeer all passed fitness tests and are named to play.

Western Bulldogs Team List

B: J.O’Donnell, J.Freijah, T.Duryea

HB: L.Bramble, R.Lobb, B.Dale

C: B.Williams, T.Liberatore - C, S.Davidson

HF: J.Dolan, A.Naughton, M.Kennedy

F: L.Vandermeer, S.Darcy, J.Harmes

FOLL: T.English, R.Sanders, E.Richards

I/C: L.Cleary, H.Gallagher, A.Jones, L.McNeil, R.West

EMG: O.Baker, R.Garcia, B.Khamis

North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	3-2

The Kangaroos are finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel after 5 years in the doldrums of the AFL ladder. Since 2020 they have finished 17th or 18th in consecutive years but are building out their list and vast improvements have been made on-field.

Nick Larkey is one of the key players for this team averaging 2 goals per game last season on 68% accuracy. Harry Sheezel and Luke Davies-Uniacke contributed with 29.8 and 27.7 disposals per game respectively in 2024 at 73% efficiency or better.

They have brought in some older talent to help the young core keep their head in games. Many times in 2024 they showed promise in the first half before being put away in the second.

Defence is still a key issue that doesn’t look like it has been paid enough attention through the off-season with the Kangas having the most points scored on them of any team in the AFL last year.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-14	13-10	3-8	0-12

North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News

Zane Duursma and Zac Fisher both missed selection but number 2 draft pick Finn O’Sullivan will make his debut. Luke Parker, Jacob Konstanty, Caleb Daniel & Jack Darling will make their club debuts.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Team List

B: C.Comben, A.Corr, G.Logue

HB: B.Scott, C.Daniel, J.Archer

C: F.O’Sullivan, L.Davies-Uniacke, J.Simpkin - C

HF: H.Sheezel, N.Larkey, C.McKercher

F: P.Curtis, J.Darling, C.Zurhaar

FOLL: T.Xerri, T.Powell, L.Parker

I/C: L.McDonald, D.Tucker, W.Phillips, J.Konstanty, R.Hansen Jr

EMG: D.Stephens, F.Maley, B.Teakle

Verdict

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Bulldogs -20.5

Line

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North under 77.5

Team Total

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S Darcy 3+

Goals

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Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2025 Round 1?

You can watch the Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2025 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2025 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2025 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Western Bulldogs site.