Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Swiatek to continue desert dominance

Swiatek has been utterly dominant over the last few years in the Californian desert and I'm backing the World No. 2 to register another convincing victory - albeit against a very difficult opponent. Swiatek admittedly hasn't been at her best in 2025, but the Pole is a different beast once she steps foot into 'Tennis Paradise'.

Indeed, Swiatek has a 20-2 record at Indian Wells - and astonishingly, 17 of those victories have come in straight sets. Swiatek has rolled through her opening two matches this tournament in straights, dropping a 6-0 bagel in each. Muchova is obviously a fantastic player and she's beaten Swiatek multiple times in the past, but these conditions are perfect for the second seed. Swiatek toppled Muchova in straights to launch the season and I'm backing the two-time Indian Wells champion in for a repeat result here.

Swiatek leads 3-1 at tour-level, including recording a 6-3 6-4 victory while representing Poland in the United Cup in January 2025.

Swiatek heads into this contest with a 16-4 record on the season.

It hasn't been a great start to the year - relatively speaking of course. Swiatek was knocked out of the Australian Open semi-finals by Madison Keys after wasting a match point, while she was defeated in the Doha semi-finals by Jelena Ostapenko and the Dubai quarter-finals by Mirra Andreeva, both in straight sets.

The World No. 2 usually has success in the Middle East, which means another deep run at Indian Wells isn't a guarantee.

However, it's tough to ignore Swiatek's early form in the desert. The 23-year-old bulldozed past Caroline Garcia by a 6-2 6-0 score before steamrolling Dayana Yastremska 6-0 6-2 in just 65 minutes, not facing a single break point.

Muchova arrives at this match with a 11-5 record in 2025 - but she will do well to immediately improve on the wins figure.

The Czech didn't have the best time down under to launch the season, losing to Swiatek and Coco Gauff in the United Cup before suffering a second round defeat at the Australian Open against Naomi Osaka.

Muchova has been consistent ever since, making the semi-finals at both Linz and Dubai, going down to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Clara Tauson respectively.

Due to injury, Muchova has only played Indian Wells once before, but it was a solid quarter-final run back in 2023. The 28-year-old also hasn't dropped a set to reach the R16 this tournament, easing past Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Katerina Siniakova.